| Fiscal Note (Dept. of Revenue)
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| The fiscal impact of HB 2974 would be a reduction in income tax revenue by an estimated $870 million to $1.74 Billion per year depending on the assumed claim rate. This estimate is based on data from the AARP "Caregiving in the US" 2015 report. From there we estimate that there are 1.36 Million caregivers caring for an adult in Illinois. Following the bill's language, we reduce that number to account only for those caring for an eligible family member. Based on the same data source we arrive to 1.16 Million caregivers that may qualify for this tax credit. When we apply the credit amount of $1,500 per qualified taxpayers to this latest figure, the result is $1.74 Billion in cost to the state - the upper limit of our estimate. The lower limit of the estimate accounts for the fact that in approximately 33% of the cases there is not a sole caregiver (based on the same data source). It also assumes that only 3 out of every 4 qualified taxpayers will claim the credit. For these two reasons in the lower limit we reduce the cost estimate to $870 Million per year, which is 50% of the upper limit. The definition of eligible expenditures is very broad, including costs associated with improvements or alterations to the family residence to permit an eligible family member to remain mobile, safe, and independent; the cost to purchase or lease equipment necessary to assist an eligible family member in carrying on one or more activities of daily living; and the cost of other goods and services that assist in providing care, including personal care attendants, transportation, and legal and financial services. For this reason, we believe that it is reasonable to expect that taxpayers may easily reach to the full credit amount of $1,500 that the bill establishes. For comparison purposes, consider that there are almost 1.6 million returns clarifying retirement income in the state (according to the latest available return data, FY16). This group of taxpayers would likely be the main beneficiary of this bill proposal. This fact reinforces our findings. Furthermore, data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid off ice indicates that the home health care cost in Illinois is around $4.2 Billion annually. This additional fact further strengthens our estimated cost range. |
Date | Chamber | Action |
2/14/2019 | House | Filed with the Clerk by Rep. Anna Moeller | 2/14/2019 | House | First Reading | 2/14/2019 | House | Referred to Rules Committee | 2/20/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Joyce Mason | 2/20/2019 | House | Removed Co-Sponsor Rep. Joyce Mason | 2/20/2019 | House | Added Chief Co-Sponsor Rep. Joyce Mason | 2/20/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Marcus C. Evans, Jr. | 2/21/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Katie Stuart | 2/22/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Monica Bristow | 2/26/2019 | House | Assigned to Revenue & Finance Committee | 3/1/2019 | House | Correctional Note Filed | 3/4/2019 | House | Pension Note Filed | 3/4/2019 | House | Judicial Note Filed | 3/4/2019 | House | State Debt Impact Note Filed | 3/5/2019 | House | Land Conveyance Appraisal Note Filed | 3/5/2019 | House | Housing Affordability Impact Note Filed | 3/6/2019 | House | State Mandates Fiscal Note Filed | 3/6/2019 | House | Home Rule Note Filed | 3/6/2019 | House | To Income Tax Subcommittee | 3/7/2019 | House | Balanced Budget Note Filed | 3/18/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Robyn Gabel | 3/21/2019 | House | Fiscal Note Filed | 3/25/2019 | House | House Committee Amendment No. 1 Filed with Clerk by Rep. Anna Moeller | 3/25/2019 | House | House Committee Amendment No. 1 Referred to Rules Committee | 3/26/2019 | House | House Committee Amendment No. 1 Rules Refers to Revenue & Finance Committee | 3/29/2019 | House | Rule 19(a) / Re-referred to Rules Committee | 3/29/2019 | House | House Committee Amendment No. 1 Rule 19(c) / Re-referred to Rules Committee | 5/30/2019 | House | Added Co-Sponsor Rep. Terra Costa Howard | 1/13/2021 | House | Session Sine Die |